Guide
Political prediction markets
Trade the outcome of an election or a policy decision at a price that moves with the odds. A share pays $1 if the outcome happens, so the price is a live read on how likely it is.
How an election market works
Take a race with two or more outcomes. Each outcome has a price between $0 and $1 that reads as its probability: $0.55 means the market puts it at 55%. Buy the outcome you expect. If it happens, each share settles at $1; if not, $0.
A live poll with money behind it
Polls are opinions. A market price is opinions people are willing to back with capital, which is why prediction markets often track races closely. When a debate lands or a poll shifts, the price moves within minutes, and you can sell into that move before the result is called.
Beyond elections
Politics markets cover more than who wins. Will a bill pass by a date? Will a nominee be confirmed? Will a policy target be hit? Each is a yes/no question with a deadline and a public result to settle on.
How political markets settle
A market resolves on the official published result: the certified election outcome, the recorded vote, the announced decision. The source is named before you trade, so there is no ambiguity about what counts.
Trade the odds
Browse open markets, or start with how a prediction exchange works.